Wealth Management

SOLVING THE INTEREST RATE CONUNDRUM

« Today, we have come a long way from that naïve and cheerful notion – one still occasionally found in theoretical textbooks on monetary pol

Fire in the - Jackson - Hole

Immediately following the July FOMC meeting, the prevailing bias appeared to shift to the belief that the Fed had executed a “dovish pivot.”

One Direction

Markets, whether in a bull market or a bear market, never move in one direction. As Dr. Burry noted on the bird app this week, in the 2000 e

Premature Extrapolation

TUE 08 AUG 2022 Sometimes the most obvious interpretation is the correct one. The July US CPI was lower than expectations on the headline...

Inversion

A key part of our process is to determine whether there is a divergence between price or consensus beliefs on the one hand and the fundament

The Battle between the Hawks & the Doves

Over the past few weeks while your humble student of the markets was away from the screens there has been an intense battle between the infl

Not Yet

There is little doubt that the prevailing bias has shifted from inflation and interest rate fear to growth risk. In recent weeks the deterio

I am not Uncertain

A cliché we often hear is that markets hate uncertainty. That tends to wind us up because markets are always uncertain as human beings canno

Doctor (Not So) Feel Good

An observation we made last week is that the rapid and emotional tightening in broad financial conditions has started to impact the spot pri

Triumph of the Shill

It is an obvious point, however, the key components of equity return are; 1) earnings per share; and 2) the valuation multiple. Of course, t

Where Credit's Due; Part II

There has been a notable shift in the prevailing bias over the past week from inflation/rate risk to recession fear. While aggregate earning

The Panic Zone

It is clearly an understatement to say that the broad selling in equities became extreme last week. From our perch, that sets the stage for

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