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Bond Market Insights - Thurs, 26 Jan 2023

Happy Australia Day!

Australia and India joined China and Taiwan on holiday today, which kept volumes low. There was still better buying of longer Asia IG paper and spreads are slightly tighter. China HY was unchanged to +o.50pt with buyers of higher quality property names.

Adani dominated Asia credit turnover this morning following the Hindenburg report on fraud and manipulation. Adani Green Energy (ADANIG) 4.375% 09/08/24 opened down 16 points at 78.00/81.00, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (ADSEZ) 3.375 24 started out at 85.50/87.00, down almost 11 points from yesterdays open of 96.25/96.75, but there was good buying interest which pulled the bonds back to 82.50/85.50 and 90/92 respectively.

Over the last year Japanese investors, including insurers and banks, sold a net 21.74 trillion yen (US$168 billion) worth of foreign medium- and long-term bonds in 2022 as increases currency hedging costs diluted the returns from overseas assets.

Meanwhile the Japanese government bond market has its own issues due to the dominance of BOJ as a holder of JGB issues. The FTSE Russell insists on a minimum outstanding amount, excluding central bank holdings, for a bond to be included in the World Government Bond Index of 500bn yen. The BOJ owned over 50% of the JGB market in September and with the aggressive buying policy due to the rate cap the BOJ owns over 100% of some issues where it is also lending them out on repo.

As a result the FTSE WGBI dropped two JGB 10yr issues out of the index this month and two more scheduled for next month.

After a strong 40yr JGB reopening the long and super long sectors continued to rally, Intermediates struggled as 10yr yields climbed towards the upper limit of the threshold. Governor Kuroda’s statements brought nothing new as he said that the BoJ needs to review policy at some point in future.

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