DJIA +0.3% / S&P -0.1% / CCMP -0.3% / CRUDE +0.1% $76.9 / GOLD -0.2% $2,020 / VIX +7.7% $13.9: The Dow closed over 100 points higher to close at a record high. Bitcoin moved above $50,000 for first time in 2yrs with a focus on the ‘halving’ and institutional flows after ETF approval. The S&P 500 lost steam after approaching 5,050. The Nasdaq 100 underperformed despite Arm Holdings surging 29%.
US Treasuries were choppy but with CPI due today there was no real conviction. IG issuance was active, with 7 deals totalling $11.3bn, led by a $3.25bn 2-tranche deal from BNP.
Fed’s Bowman toed the line, repeating that the Fed should be in no rush to raise rates as risks to their inflation target remain. CPI will shine some light on this. Consensus is for headline at +2.9% and core at +3.7%. The NY Fed survey of consumer expectations showed 1yr inflation edged a little lower to 3.0% while the 3y inflation fell to 2.4% from 2.6%, the lowest reading in the 11-year history of the survey.
The market is pricing in 37bps of cuts through the first half of 2024 and 110bps of cuts priced by the end of the year, down 35bps since Non-Farm Payroll.
China, HK and Taiwan remain closed today.