Asset Management

Aug 31, 20223 min read

Fire in the - Jackson - Hole

Immediately following the July FOMC meeting, the prevailing bias appeared to shift to the belief that the Fed had executed a “dovish pivot.”

Aug 12, 20223 min read

One Direction

Markets, whether in a bull market or a bear market, never move in one direction. As Dr. Burry noted on the bird app this week, in the 2000 e

Aug 11, 20222 min read

Premature Extrapolation

TUE 08 AUG 2022 Sometimes the most obvious interpretation is the correct one. The July US CPI was lower than expectations on the headline...

Aug 8, 20222 min read

Inversion

A key part of our process is to determine whether there is a divergence between price or consensus beliefs on the one hand and the fundament

Aug 4, 20223 min read

The Battle between the Hawks & the Doves

Over the past few weeks while your humble student of the markets was away from the screens there has been an intense battle between the infl

Jul 8, 20222 min read

Not Yet

There is little doubt that the prevailing bias has shifted from inflation and interest rate fear to growth risk. In recent weeks the deterio

Jul 4, 20222 min read

I am not Uncertain

A cliché we often hear is that markets hate uncertainty. That tends to wind us up because markets are always uncertain as human beings canno

Jun 29, 20222 min read

Doctor (Not So) Feel Good

An observation we made last week is that the rapid and emotional tightening in broad financial conditions has started to impact the spot pri

Jun 28, 20222 min read

Triumph of the Shill

It is an obvious point, however, the key components of equity return are; 1) earnings per share; and 2) the valuation multiple. Of course, t

Jun 24, 20223 min read

Where Credit's Due; Part II

There has been a notable shift in the prevailing bias over the past week from inflation/rate risk to recession fear. While aggregate earning

Jun 23, 20223 min read

The Panic Zone

It is clearly an understatement to say that the broad selling in equities became extreme last week. From our perch, that sets the stage for

Jun 22, 20222 min read

The Titanic Yen

The rally in the US dollar and depreciation of the Japanese Yen has become episodic. Clearly it has not gone unnoticed and is now the focus