While some indicators of financial stress appear more sanguine than in the aftermath of 1998 Russia default, there are some genuinely troubl

From our perch, it is plausible that markets are experiencing a phase of cognitive dissonance on inflation and policy risk. Cognitive disson

An observation we have often made is that “volatility” is not an adequate measure of risk. Rather, proper risk is the permanent loss of capi

Abstracting from the short term price action, a key big picture question for investors is whether the game has changed? Put another way, has

As my astute Italian friend noted overnight, a key reason why there is always such a strong resistance to consider extreme outcomes like mon

One of the extraordinary features of the current inflation/rates episode is that the markets appear to be focused on the end of the tighteni

For those not familiar with the term, an “armchair general” is someone who portrays themselves as an expert on military or strategic matters

Since 1913, 90% of Fed rate cycles have ended in recession. On the positive side, as we have noted before, the real damage from higher rate

Earlier this week we had an interesting question on whether there was “value” in small companies, specifically US small companies. The obser

The lead guitarist of Guns N’ Roses has been described as a “train-wreck within a train wreck.” Nonetheless, Slash is likely one of the grea

Earlier this week we noted that according to chaos theory, the edge of chaos with maximum complexity exists between paradigm shifts. Followi

On Monday we suggested that there is an uncomfortable parallel with the market correction in the fourth quarter of 2018. That correction was